ROME - say The experts of Bloomberg, and this is emphasised in the japanese Norihiro Fujito senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities: the referendum, the Italian constitutional court on 4 December, the next to the next summit of Opec (the oil producers), it will be one of the joints that are fundamental for understanding the mood of the international markets in the coming months. Nespite a bit of tension, according to the financial agency Usa a possible defeat of the government Renzi will not be a dramatic event for the estate of the Country. Catastrophic instead, in case of victory of ” No ” forecasts Wolfgang Münchau, co-director of the Financial Times, the main economic newspaper in the uk. “As long as there is growth there is hope,” is the message much more optimistic launched from the Wall Street Journal. For the New York Times, then, the reforms are only a superstructure: the real problem of the Italian economy lies in the lack of stability of the banks, sconfessata, however, by the governor of the bank of Italy Ignazio Visco. For Goldman Sachs instead of “if he won the No, there would be risks to the weakest banks”. The book of revelation european according to the Financial Times. The apocalyptic is, therefore, the scenario outlined by M Europe disintegrated and Italy out of the euro. For Münchau, “the 5th of December, the Europe might wake up with the immediate threat of disintegration”. And the causes would be find also in the structural problems of the Italian economy: “Italy in 1999 it joined the euro its total productivity was approximately 5%, while Germany and France have exceeded the 10%”. It would also be the bankruptcy of the attempt to build an economic union and a banking efficient after the eurozone crisis of 2010-2012 based only on austerity, a choice attributable, according to the FT, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. “The combination of these two factors are the biggest cause of the exponential growth of populism in Europe” that Münchau has in Italy three opposition parties all in favour of it, albeit in a different way, the exit from the euro: the Five-Star Forza Italia and the League. The threat lepenista in France. Next to the outcome of the Italian referendum, continues the Financial Times, you have to take into account the other great and possible destabilising element: the probability of victory in the French presidential elections Marine Le Pen. And if he were to win, “ms. Le Pen has promised a referendum on the future of France in the Eu. If this were to lead to the ‘Frexit’ (the exit from the Eu in Paris, such as the Brexit, ed.), the european Union would be over the day after and so the euro”. The recipe FT. This series of events could be prevented only “if Merkel were to accept what has so far refused: a road map towards a full fiscal union and political,” adds the co-director of the Financial Times. It should also be strengthened, “the European Stability Mechanism, the rescue system of the Countries of the eurozone, which is not designed to save Countries the size of Italy and France. In any case, Münchau the prediction more concrete “remains not a collapse of the Eu or the euro, but an exit of one or more Countries, possibly Italy, but not France”. The Wall Street Journal: “a technical government”. Not less alarming, although it is less catastrophic, the predictions of the Wall Street Journal, which is out today with an article on the front page is devoted to the effects on the markets of the Italian referendum. According to Riva Gold and John Legorano, after Brexit, and Trump, a possible negative outcome of the consultation would lead to a fall in securities Italian banking and a further weakening of the euro. “The referendum turned into a vote of confidence on the ability of the government Renzi to revive the economy,” notes the Wsj, citing Wolf von Rotberg, economic analyst of Deutsche Bank, according to which the outcome of the referendum “will help to set the tone for 2017, the political climate and investment in Italy and Europe”. For the main financial newspaper, the Usa, in case of victory of No and subsequent fall of the executive Renzi, the result most to be hoped for is “the establishment of a technical government” that would do less damage and spaventerebbe less investors compared to a hypothetical government of the Five-star “party, anti-establishment demands, which aims to renegotiate the Italian public debt and to call a referendum on the euro, destabilizing the whole of south Europe”. An eventual seizure of power on the part of the grillini could “topple the 20%, the main european indexes”, writes the Wsj, citing a study by Deutsche Bank. In conclusion, the article reveals a glimmer of hope: “Italy is The largest of Brexit – says Guy Monson, the head of the investment committee of the swiss private bank Sarasin & Partners – and as long as the Country is growing we cannot give in to the crisis”. the New York Times: the problem are the banks. The daily new york believes that among the causes of the economic weakness of Italy there would be the banks, who are forced to support “society of zombies” that will never be able to repay loans. But Ignazio Visco, quoted in the article, reassures: “ Goldman Sachs.
- Topics:
- financial times
- wall street journal
- bloomberg
- Referendum
- euro
- the new york times
- the Five Star Movement
- lega nord
- subject to considerable debate
- Starring:
- WOLFGANG MUNCHAU
- Matteo Renzi
- Ignazio Visco
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