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This article was published June 2, 2015 at 7:15.
The effect Renzi did not happen. The Northern League is the first party of the center-right. The M5S is still the second largest party in Italian. The turnout continues to rise. These are the most significant data of this round of regional elections beyond the five to two.
For the Democratic Party is an ambiguous result. It could have been better if he had won in Liguria. But it could have been worse if he had lost in Campania. Especially since we now know that he could lose in Umbria. It is a result, however, different from that of the European. There was a “Renzi effect” and could not be there.
Those who expected such a thing had miscalculated. A “effect Renzi” there was the European candidate because there was him, because at the time was a new character and because the competition was nationwide.
After a difficult year of government with a economic crisis continues to bite expect that the prime minister could have a strong impact on this election was political fiction. Without the effect Renzi regional candidates of the Democratic Party had to rely on their own strength. They won in the central regions where there is still a residue of traditional left and a party structure at the local level. They won in Campania and Puglia and because Emiliano De Luca are figures with a significant personal following. They lost badly in Liguria and Veneto for bad choices and divisions suicide.
In particular in Liguria data unequivocally say that the Democratic Party could win together. And winning here would change the interpretation of media this result, even if the substance of things would remain the same. And the matter is that at the national level when the Democratic Party can count on Renzi has a chance to get out from the perimeter of its traditional constituency while at the local level with its current ruling class that does not happen. The case of Veneto is striking from this point of view. The issue of the North and the issue of party reform are intertwined and are a problem not easily solved by the premier.
The Northern League has overtaken Forza Italy. First they said the polls. Now they say the vows. Only the victory of Toti in Liguria, thanks to the League, can mask the fact that the current Forza Italy has become a fringe player. Overtaking took place in the North and Center. Not yet in the South. In this area the party Salvini was present only in Apulia, and here the results were very modest (2%). In southern regions, a party called the Northern League is struggling to establish itself even if disguised under the symbol “Salvini with us.” In other regions, the League went rather well surpassing widely Berlusconi’s party. Rounding the percentages, in Liguria is over 20 to 13 in favor of Salvini; in Veneto 18 to 6; in Tuscany 16 to 9; Marche 13 to 9; Umbria 14 to 9.
The Northern League has become, therefore, the largest party of the center-right, but Salvini’s ambition to drive this deployment faces two objective limits. The Northern League is not yet a national party. It is a party of the center-north. And it is a party where there is a lot more right than center. In fact, its growth is due largely to the ability of its leaders to leverage the anxieties and fears of an electorate anti-European and anti-immigrant. Many of these voters once voted Forza Italy. Now they have moved. The exchange of votes from Berlusconi’s party and what once was Bossi’s party is well known. Between the two electorates there has always been, and still is, considerable overlap. But Forza Italy was also a moderate voters of the center that today has largely disappeared. Voters disappointed by the Knight and unconvinced by Salvini. They stayed at home and someone has finished among the ranks of Grillo. So this election, as they represent a limited test, confirm that right there is a void that the Northern League only partially able to overcome. Nor do the various Ncd, UDC or Brothers of Italy. Mutatis mutandis, we went back to 1994 when only the descent into the field of the Knight was able to give voice to a moderate voters bewildered by the loss of its landmarks, DC and PSI. One difference is that then the main party of the right was the MSI-An, today is the Northern League.
The Northern League, however, is the second Italian party. If they had been national elections in the runoff against the candidate would go Renzi Grillo (who?) And Salvini. The M5s not that meteor of Italian politics that many thought. It is no longer the largest party in the country as it was in 2013 but has not disappeared. It holds great second place. And not just at the level of national elections but also at the level of administrative, and this was not granted. Also, unlike the Northern League, it is a national party. Indeed, it is the only national party after the Democratic Party. Economic crisis, youth unemployment, scandals, controversies about the candidates unpresentable continue to support the consent fueling protest voters increasingly alienated from traditional politics. For many of them the M5s is the only real alternative radical. It is the true anti-party system. And as long as his constituents continue to perceive that the “system” does not change continue to vote for him. Without this component of “angry”, which the party Grillo gives voice, it is very likely that the turnout would be even higher.
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