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This article was published April 7, 2015 at 07:40.
The last change is the April 7, 2015 at 07:42.
The government meetings ANCI before the launch of the Def, “so that we can have an open and that we can advance our proposals. ” The request of the president of the association of municipalities and Mayor of Turin, Piero Fassino, who evidently aims to forestall even with regard to the financial effects of the local tax, the new property tax that from 2016 should unify IMU and Tasi but also the need to better define the details of the texts of the technical examination of the Chigi Palace and the Treasury, pushing for an “additional investigation” before the final go-ahead.
Today the Council of Ministers could be confined to a preliminary examination, while the launch of the entire program framework (Def, National program of reform and update of the Stability Programme) would be delayed to Friday. Municipalities are on a war footing. “Note especially against – Fassino observes – that in recent years we have been asked a financial strain considerable proportion higher than that applied to other levels of government.” At risk are essential services, “crèches, nurseries, home care for the elderly, the local public transport.”
In the foreground the new estimates of growth. At the moment, and waiting to quantify in more detail and the effect of external variables (quantitative easing by the drop in interest rates), and the internal variables (the impact of the reforms in terms of growth of potential GDP), the government attest to a substantial line of prudence. For GDP, it goes to 0.7%, slightly above the target of 0.6% estimated at the end of 2014. In 2016, growth is expected to consolidate in a range between 1.3 and 1.5%, with the deficit that would remain steady at 2.6% this year, to be reduced in the scenario planning around 1.8 per cent. There remains the possibility that the budget plan next October the bar is raised to 2.2% effective, thus opening the space to use part of the deficit for the financing of measures to be included in the stability law.
The Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan aims to strengthen the framework of public finance through the gradual reduction of the nominal deficit (last year to 3% of GDP), now also guaranteed by the higher growth, without thereby jeopardizing the measures to support economic activity. In parallel, between spring and summer will start negotiations with the European Commission – of which mention is made in the Def – to check further margins thanks to the ‘flexibility clause on the reforms. ” Room for maneuver that would result in more time to comply with the timing of reducing the structural deficit (net of changes in the business cycle and one-off) in the direction of a balanced budget. If fully implemented, compared to a path of structural reforms with certain effects and quantified on the growth potential of the economy, the flexibility clause could be worth up to 0.5% of GDP (7-8 billion), to be used for financing reforms, with a further extension of the deadline for reaching a balanced, that would be delayed from 2017 to 2018.
The game more challenging it is confirmed that with the structural cuts to current spending. Def will figure in the new project in the pipeline in 10 billion, fully intended to defuse the safeguard clauses (otherwise you would face with the savings expected from the drop in interest rates and spreads). The aim, however, even higher. If the savings of the spending review should be more full-bodied, with the strongest growth and reforms is largely achieved, the intention – confirmed by government sources – is to use the additional margin for interventions aimed at the reduction of the tax burden in the first place on the job. The use of the most nominal deficit would serve to finance interventions, which are also classified as critical to supporting growth, including the confirmation (with perhaps more selective criteria) of de-contribution for new employees on permanent contracts. The VAT will not increase – ensures Matteo Renzi, and the chairman of the House Budget Committee, Francesco Boccia (Pd) hopes that this is not just a slip to 2017: “Companies need to be sure that there is no utility a Damocles sword as the VAT increase even in 2017. We must cut spending, it is appropriate to close many municipal utilities that do not work and cut spending of some large central ministries that have not made the crash diet. ”
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