Hard to say if the municipal vote yesterday in Trentino-Alto Adige and Valle d’Aosta can be considered as a reliable test in view of the next May 31. It is, in fact, of the borderlands, politically eccentric, where they have always excelled formations for autonomy at the expense of national parties. And where has always voted with the idea of keeping it tight wallet containing fees paid and to minimize interference Roman.
But excluding these peculiarities some trend line, designed to replicate even the next administration perhaps you may intravvedersi. Indeed, it is in times of difficulty that curiously we discover all equal, prey to the same anxieties and concerns, from Trento in Naples. It is therefore not to be considered a given quota, for example, that relating abstention. Fatigue-confidence of the voters is a widespread reality and homogeneous, is not a given territorial restricted to certain areas. The Italian political class, in its various forms, has not yet reconciled with citizens, who continue to judge inept and often corrupt. The economic crisis, in spite of the ads and the government continues to bite, keeping in check the production system and depressing consumption. In the country, to probe it carefully, circulates a widespread feeling that a level is made of anger and resignation.
This explains why so many, even today, are back home: nearly 50% of potential voting. A percentage that could replicate or worse incremented taking account of the unfortunate decision to call Italians to the polls on May 31, near a tempting holiday period. If it will, as everything suggests, sunny days the civic duty of voting will easily leave the place to enjoy a relaxing trip. On the other hand, the performance of these administrative – just think of how they were made the lists of candidates, so often politically unscrupulous, without considering the unpresentable in running for a seat – is not one that can encourage citizens to participate .
But the real question is what can be trusted on a national scale, the results obtained by individual parties. Also in this case the impression is that, specificity political-territorial in part, some useful indication urns have the date. If only because what happened in the towns in the Valle d’Aosta and those of the north-east of Italy seems to be – a little more, a little less – exactly in line with what is expected, according to the surveys and the popular mood, for the next administrative: the massive growth of the League, the electoral decline of Forza Italy, a good statement of the Movement 5 Stars, the victory (quietly) the Democratic Party Renzi.
That this is so is demonstrated by the reactions and comments of stakeholders, from the enthusiasm of Salvini and the Northern League, from their point of view began the long wave that will lead them to dominate a center reduced from months to a field of ruins. In the rest of Europe, from France to Britain, the conservative right and the liberal has muted the radical and populist. In Italy it has become clear that the balance of power are worth, in that policy, just the opposite. By dint of chasing the league on his land, marrying themes and language, he ended up giving him visibility and votes: those who already four or five years ago put the world Berlusconi to part of this risk it received jeers and accusations of political ineptitude. It makes an impression feel that Knight – arrived with his party at around 5% in those parts of Italy – intends to take charge of a movement inspired Republican-conservative bringing together the center-back under his leadership. As if he was still stuck in 1994. But impresses even more the idea that this new rassemblement moderates should also cover the league. Instead of competing with it, it flatters the same way as the best ally of the square. When you say persevere in that other leaders of the European right have never dreamed of committing.
The party Grillo confirms a fact that now is also rooted in the territory and local representatives. By vote of opinion, in a sign of protest against the Palace, the vote to 5 star is turning into political vote-identity. On the other hand we must recognize that if the summit of the movement often indulges in delusions conspirators or politically apocalyptic visions, its militants and activists of divere suburbs act politically in a very concrete and pragmatic way, demonstrating a knowledge about the different dossier (and a passion ) that often the leaders of the other parties did not. They are sometimes intransigent in their battles, but they are certainly honest and active on issues often neglected by traditional parties. Also they do not practice the ignoble art of transformation, that in these last administration reached – in some areas of Italy – sublime heights, with passages of the field from right to left (and vice versa) much incomprehensible to citizens. Because these latter should not vote for 5 stars as guardians and defenders of their interests in the area?
As for the Democratic Party wins in Valle d’Aosta and Trentino Alto Adige Alo, doing almost coat, as you probably will win a full hands on 31 May. This is the time fer: his promises and good intentions must still trust, waiting to see if and when it will be realized the many reforms he has in mind, and the rest at present there is no credible alternative to his political project. But the splendor of the European elections – the 40% that in May 2014 the projected Olympus of international socialism – seem to be already gone. The transfer en masse to the Democratic Party of moderate voters is an urban myth devoid of empirical evidence: the disappointed of Berlusconi, except those that are accasati with the League, have swelled the ranks of abstention. Renzi continues, despite grumbling inside, get your fill of the votes that historically have been those of the traditional left. And he does having a party that responds to all levels (except for some foliage in the area), leading a government in which no one is able to counter it and to make him shadow, leveraging an election with him at the helm the left will have also abandoned the street many of its old slogans, but at least it finally takes some satisfaction to the polls, after so many frustrations.
This is what we can say about the vote yesterday. If the May 31 dispelling the reasoning just made, the only consolation is that at that time this article will already have been forgotten.
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