A month ago the voters showed a good coldness vis-à-vis the new government, led by Paolo Gentiloni: only one Italian out of four declared that he was satisfied with the quick resolution of the crisis and the inauguration of the new executive, judged in large measure the same as the previous, and one of the two called for elections in quick, immediately after the judgment of the Consulta on the Italicum scheduled for 24 January. Compared to the previous governments, the consensus was values are considerably lower. A few weeks into the survey today you post a more benevolent vis-à-vis the government and a distancing of the elections in the expectations of citizens. In fact, a third of italians expressed a positive assessment of the actions of the executive against the 44% that he / she gives a negative opinion, while 23% do not express an evaluation. In the scenario tripolar it is not surprising t hat the appreciation is in the minority; rather, compared to the government Renzi recorded less negative reviews and a sort of suspension of judgment.
When you come back to vote
As for the elections, the question of elections to the quick by voters, the League and the M5S, but, on the whole, decreased by 8 points (from 48% to 40%) the share of those who want elections as soon as possible while there is an increase of 4 points (from 25% to 29%) of those who hopes for elections in June or September, after the approval of a new electoral law and remains substantially stable (16%) the expectation of a vote at the end of the legislature, in February 2018. If a month ago the supporters of the elections the immediate prevailed on each other for 48% to 41%, now it is the “fence-sitter” prevail to 44% to 40%.
The future of Renzi
The opinions in regard to the future of Renzi is far from a homogeneous to a large extent influenced by the policy area of membership: the relative majority of the respondents (38%) considers that the former premier is in trouble and to be able to resume need to create alliances within and outside the Pd; 30% consider it a leader defeated, with no political prospects, while 22% is of opposite opinion and believes that he will recover quickly from the defeat in the referendum and will continue to have a central role. Undoubtedly on the path of Renzi and his party are many unknowns: the priority seems to be the one to find a tune with the Country, an essential condition to extend the consent of the Pd, a long-time effort to win new voters, and seems to have lost the cross-section of which had benefited the European. But in his party, an absolute majority remains confident in its ready capacity for recovery.
M5S head back to the top
The political landscape, on the other hand, does not present significant changes in spite of the events of the last few weeks, some of which have had high resonance in the media. Just think of the events that have affected the M5S, not so much for the judicial inquiries in the roman, as for the utterances of its leader on very different topics: from those on the deportation of irregular immigrants, to the hypothesis of the establishment of juries to judge the media, warning, warranty, up to the controversial decision to join the group pro-european Alde group in the Eu Parliament, leaving the Efdd with the eurosceptics of Nigel Farage. As we know, the request was refused by the president of Alde Guy Verhofstadt, and the M5s is remained in the group with Farage by agreeing to harsh conditions. Well, despite all this, the M5S does record an increase (+0,9) in the guidelines of the vote compared to December, coming in at 30.9% and returning at the head on the Pd that is stable (30.3% decline of 0.2). The electorate pentastellato appears tetragon that is insensitive to the events that affect the Movement. The european case, for example, has been followed in detail, or on the facts by the 45% of voters and only 8% believed that the M5S will lose consensus and will not be able to recover it, for the 27% will recover with fatigue, while 40% (71% among voters”) does not involve a loss of consent (14%) or imagine a recovery soon, as has already happened in the past (26%).
scenery granite
The scenario for the election appears on granite, in spite of the current political situation and, as already said, this is due to the radicalisation of electorates, and attitude on the defensive, increasingly comparable to those of the fans, especially those who cheer for “against”.
the Electorate is heterogeneous
In the case of the 5-Star hotel adds a further element, highlighted by the political scientist Paul Christmas, on the composition of the electorate cricket, whose origin is transversal. The coexistence of different souls leads to compensate for any losses caused by decisions striking, that give rise to disappointment, with the entry of new voters. For example, the proposal to expel irregular migrants leads to a decrease of voters from the left and causes an increase in voters from the right. In short, a zero-sum game that allows the Movement to remain substantially stable in the orientations of the vote. The heterogeneity of the electorate and therefore represents a resource for the M5S that you can afford to put forward proposals that do not shine for coherence, without paying duty in terms of the elections. However, there remains the proof of the pudding: when it governs, things change.
January 13, 2017 (edit) on 13 January 2017 | 23:45)
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