Sunday, January 25, 2015

Europe and markets the test in Athens – Il Sole 24 Ore

Europe and markets the test in Athens – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on 25 January 2015 to 08:10 hours.

ATHENS

Today in Greece is the day of truth, the first election of a European country on the austerity policies advocated by the troika in the last four year old. This is the meaning that the Greeks gave to this consultation which becomes a referendum on the penalty line accounts ordered by the German Finance Minister, Wolfagang Schauble, winning policy so far in Europe on the resolution of the sovereign debt crisis.

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ATHENS

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Alexis Tsiparas, leader of Syriza, the party of the radical left, so challenge “doctrine Schauble” and promises “hope” after four years years of sacrifice: a promise that comes in less public spending cuts and wage and debt reduction. Only Syriza ‘can save the country and rinegaziare debt with the troika, “said the leader of Syriza yesterday in Heraklion, Crete to the final rally, while the Prime Minister Antonis Samaras of Neo Dimokratia replied” that Greece is emerging from crisis and needs no other loans and that the “accident” SYRIZA will not win. “

But Syriza was in the lead from three to six percentage points of Neo Dimokratia, the ruling party, but now travels on 33% of the votes of 138 seats while to get an absolute majority, totaling 151 seats out of 300, must be at least 35 percent in the general election today.

Without an absolute majority Tsipras would be forced to an alliance with the Left moderate To Potami or socialist PASOK’s Venizelos, or the new party of the center-left former Prime Minister George Papandreou, an element that very weaken the negotiating position.

Today Tsipras demands end austerity wanted by the troika and a discount of 70% of the greek debt to international creditors as happened in 1952 when the Allies conceded a discount of 62% Germany defeat. A request for this delicate that it could become a dangerous precedent in the Eurozone, which so far has always avoided bailouts with restructuring the debt to taxpayers from other Member States.

The mountain of aid amounting to 240 billion euro so far granted to Athens are technically loans that must be repaid. Unlike the case with the haircut from 100 billion euro that involved “only” private holders of Greek bonds in March 2012.

SYRIZA, in the last hours has leaked unofficially that would settle for a large elongation of debt maturities at least a few decades and attach to the growth or decline of disoccupzione interest payments, amounting to 9 billion euro debt greek, which according to analysis by independent economists amounts to 330 billion euro, equal to 175% GDP in the meantime has been reduced by 25 percent.

SYRIZA also calls to reduce the austerity policies providing electricity and free food (food stamps as in the US) to the poorest families, restoration of 13 ^ minimum monthly payments to retirees, raising the threshold of tax exemption between 5 and 12mile euro, but does not say where he takes the money and some of London financiers including Jorg Sponer analyst Capital Fund in an email sent to its customers spoke of “scenery Cypriot », with investors running at ATMs of banks, capital flight abroad and late arrival of foreign investment.

Tsipras talking since incoming prime minister in recent days has lowered the tones of the requests, saying that there will be no unilateral decisions on debt to reassure the markets, while the austerity measures Friday took a radical attitude because electorally sensitive issue. Today, once again in three years, the fate of Europe passes from Athens.

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THE BURDEN OF DEBT

The plan of debt maturities government greek. Billions of Euros



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